From the perspective of Daniel Kahneman's prospect theory, people tend to overvalue immediate rewards at the expense of long-term gains, a phenomenon known as temporal discounting. In their seminal work, Kahneman and Tversky (1979) explain that our inherent cognitive biases often lead us to choose immediate, smaller benefits over delayed, larger ones.
Building on this theory, additional behavioural economics and psychology insights suggest that this tendency may also stem from our perception of our future selves. Research indicates that we often treat our future selves as if they were strangers, disconnected from our present reality. This detachment from our future self can lead us to prioritise short-term gains, believing that any long-term challenges will essentially become the problem of this distant "other."
This notion aligns with the concept of 'future self-continuity.' A study conducted by Hershfield et al. (2009) found that when individuals perceive their future selves as significantly different from their current selves, they are more likely to make decisions that favour immediate gratification. For instance, the study revealed that participants exposed to digitally aged avatars of themselves were more inclined to allocate more money for retirement, presumably because the visualisation made their future selves feel more real and immediate.
In essence, how we perceive our future selves can heavily influence our decisions in the present. When our future selves feel abstract and distant, we are more prone to giving in to immediate gratification, essentially prioritising short-term ease over long-term benefits. Therefore, understanding this psychological dynamic is critical to making decisions that balance the needs of our present and future selves.
Romantic Relationships and raising children
This dichotomy is easily seen in romantic relationships. The easy route of avoiding conflict may provide short-term peace but can lead to long-term dissatisfaction, resentment, and miscommunication. Gottman's research (1994) into marital stability and divorce prediction indicates that couples who confront and resolve their issues, despite the immediate discomfort, tend to have more stable and satisfying relationships in the long run.
Similarly, in child-rearing, parents often face the decision between enforcing discipline, which may be challenging in the short term, and giving in to their children's demands for the sake of immediate peace. However, research, such as that conducted by Eisenberg et al. (2001), suggests that children who learn to delay gratification and endure short-term difficulties often develop better social, academic, and psychological outcomes in the long run.
Societal and Cultural Contexts
On a broader scale, this dichotomy manifests in social, cultural, and population levels. Societies prioritising short-term gains, such as unchecked industrial growth, face long-term challenges like environmental degradation and social inequality. On the other hand, societies that endure short-term hardships for sustainable development often enjoy long-term prosperity and stability. A study by the World Bank (2012) supports this, indicating that countries investing in sustainable infrastructure, despite the immediate costs, have better long-term economic and social outcomes.
Culturally, populations that value discipline, hard work, and long-term goals often enjoy greater societal benefits over time. Hofstede's cultural dimensions theory (1980) notes that cultures exhibiting long-term orientation tend to have higher savings rates, better educational achievement, and more sustainable growth.
In many democratic systems, the four-year election cycle can inadvertently promote a short-term mindset, with politicians eager to show immediate results to boost their reelection chances. This often leads to prioritising policies that yield quick results, even if they may not necessarily be the most beneficial in the long run.
For example, a governing party might focus on quick-fix economic measures or populist policies that bring about immediate changes but may fail to consider the long-term implications. Such short-termism can result in a lack of sustainable, forward-thinking strategies, potentially leading to issues the next government will have to solve. This lack of continuity can hinder long-term planning and progress, as future governments may undo the policies of their predecessors, creating a cycle of short-term policies that contradict each other and little long-term growth.
Conversely, there are instances where governments, despite the constraints of election cycles, have managed to implement long-term strategies. These are often accompanied by an effort to create bipartisan consensus or public understanding about the necessity of these longer-term plans. An excellent example of this can be seen in the case of Germany's "Energiewende" or energy transition policy. This long-term policy initiated in the early 2000s aimed to shift the country towards more sustainable energy sources. Despite the country's various changes in government and the policy's complexity, the Energiewende has remained a consistent goal.
According to the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, the Energiewende is a broad-based policy with long-term goals that include cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 80 to 95 per cent before 2050, increasing the share of renewable energy sources in electricity supply to at least 80 per cent before 2050, and improving energy efficiency. This policy has been pursued consistently over the years, transcending the typical four-year election cycle and various leadership changes. (Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, www.bmwk.de).
In essence, the short-term versus long-term dichotomy is as challenging in the political sphere as it is in other aspects of life. The ability to think long-term while meeting short-term objectives is a delicate balancing act that every successful democratic system must strive to achieve.
Business, Innovation, and Strategy
Businesses also face this dichotomy. Companies prioritising short-term profits over long-term strategy often struggle with sustainability and relevance. Conversely, firms like Amazon, which endured years of losses for long-term market dominance, exemplify how short-term difficulty can yield long-term success.
This can also be seen in my work with cloud strategy. The short-term versus long-term dichotomy is apparent when comparing two common enterprise approaches to cloud adoption: the workload versus platform approach.
The workload approach to cloud adoption typically involves moving individual workloads or applications to the cloud, usually with minimal optimisation. This can provide quick wins in achieving some cloud benefits, such as scalability and an OPEX instead of a CAPEX model for infrastructure. However, this approach leads to a fragmented IT environment with workloads spread across multiple cloud environments with different processes and security controls. Without a unified cloud management strategy, organisations increase the complexity and risk of their cloud footprint, often negating any cost savings and increasing compliance concerns in the long term.
On the other hand, the platform approach to cloud adoption involves the development of a comprehensive cloud strategy and establishing a cloud platform through which applications can consistently be optimised and migrated to the cloud. This approach requires a significant upfront investment of time and resources, as it involves the technical aspects of setting up the cloud platform and the organisational changes and educational programme needed to support and use the platform. This typically involves training and reassigning staff, restructuring IT and support teams, and adopting new IT governance and operational processes.
However, the long-term benefits of the platform approach far outweigh these initial challenges. A unified cloud platform enables greater agility, scalability, and resilience, allowing organisations to respond more quickly to business changes and opportunities. Over time, it can lead to greater cost savings as efficiencies are gained from having a single, streamlined cloud environment. The consistent approach, which typically also sees developers enabled to be more self-sufficient, improves security and decreases the time required to move the majority of the application portfolios into the cloud.
In essence, the workload approach to cloud adoption represents the short-term, 'easy' option, while the platform approach represents the long-term, 'hard' option. In my experience, it is often difficult to convince organisations to take the latter approach if they have not first tried and failed at the former. In some cases, this seems to be because the downsides of the former are considered a problem for the future and not an immediate concern. That being said, there is value in starting with a workload approach. Although it is not an efficient use of the organisation’s money, it does provide an opportunity for the teams to quickly get more familiar with the cloud before switching to the platform approach.
Embracing the Uncomfortable
Managing this dichotomy involves a shift in mindset to embrace discomfort as a pathway to growth. Techniques like mindfulness and cognitive reframing can help us accept short-term difficulties for long-term gains. Additionally, developing grit, a term popularised by psychologist Angela Duckworth, involves cultivating passion and long-term perseverance, which can help navigate through immediate hardships.
Goal setting, both in personal and professional life, is another effective strategy. When our goals are defined, measurable, and time-bound, they provide a roadmap that can help us endure short-term difficulties for long-term benefits. An essential aspect is understanding that setbacks are often part of the process. As illustrated in a study by Locke and Latham (2002), setting challenging and specific goals led to higher performance than easy or abstract goals.
Mental contrasting, a technique developed by psychologist Gabriele Oettingen, can also be helpful. This involves envisioning the desired future and contrasting it with the present reality. Research has shown that this technique increases motivation and the likelihood of achieving long-term goals (Oettingen, 2012).
Moreover, developing a growth mindset, a concept introduced by Carol Dweck, can help us see challenges as opportunities for growth rather than threats. Dweck's research (2008) shows that individuals with a growth mindset are more likely to embrace difficulties and persist when facing obstacles, leading to higher achievement in the long run.
Finally, cultivating patience is key. In a fast-paced world that often prioritises speed, learning to be patient can be a powerful tool. Patience helps us make better decisions, be persistent, and ultimately achieve our long-term goals. A study published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (Schnitker, 2012) found that individuals who exhibit higher levels of patience can better cope with stress and achieve their goals.
In conclusion, the balance between short-term ease and long-term hardship, and vice versa – is a fundamental aspect of our lives. It is present in various domains, from personal relationships and child-rearing to societal development and business strategy. By understanding this dichotomy and learning to navigate it – through techniques like goal setting, mental contrasting, and cultivating grit, a growth mindset, and patience – we can better manage short-term difficulties and pave the way for long-term success and satisfaction. In essence, getting comfortable with being uncomfortable really can be the secret to thriving in the long run.